Will the trend of more fresh from Iceland continue?

November 24, 2017

In the past we have been looking at the exports of fresh cod products from Iceland to the key markets. This time around we are taking the long term view and giving our readers a snapshot of the developments over a longer period. More specifically we are looking at the change in the share of fresh of all the cod exports from Iceland. The numbers tell us a very clear story. Since the year 2000 to the present the exports of fresh have increased from about 12% of the export value for cod to close to 39%. In the year 2000 the share of export volume measured in terms of the live weight was about 11% and in 2017 fresh cod is third of the export volume.

A simple comparison of these to charts shows that not only have exporters put greater emphasis on the export of fresh over this period but also that the relative value of fresh is higher than for other products. The question at hand what does this then mean in the future? Projecting the future trend with a simple trend analysis would indicate that the greater emphasis on fresh is going to continue.

Does this mean that we can clearly state this will be the case? If everything were so simple we could simply ignore all other factors and live in the seafood business would be so easy. Unfortunately or fortunately this is not the case as we have to consider a lot of other factors that influence the decisions of producers of what to export and in what format. The costs of processing, costs of materials, foreign exchange rates, etc. all play apart. Given the current situation in Iceland it is unlikely that the export trend of fresh will continue at the same pace. Yet, this is something that we will be monitoring and analyzing more closely. For further analysis follow us on markofish.com.

For further information contact us at info@markofish.com.